KCLT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

78%

62%

34%

23%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

ICONNO 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.30u · ICON −47.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:20+00:00	70.7%	58.8%	74.9%	38.2%	38.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	70.7%	58.8%	74.9%	38.2%	38.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	70.7%	58.8%	74.9%	38.2%	38.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	70.7%	58.8%	68.6%	38.2%	38.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	70.7%	58.8%	68.6%	38.2%	38.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:50+00:00	70.7%	58.8%	68.6%	38.2%	38.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	70.0%	58.8%	68.6%	28.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	70.0%	58.8%	68.6%	28.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	70.0%	58.8%	68.6%	28.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	70.0%	58.8%	68.6%	28.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	70.0%	58.8%	68.6%	28.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	70.0%	58.8%	69.5%	28.8%	26.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	70.0%	58.8%	69.5%	28.8%	26.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	70.0%	58.8%	69.5%	28.8%	26.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	75.8%	58.8%	69.5%	28.8%	26.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	75.8%	58.8%	69.5%	28.8%	26.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	75.8%	58.8%	69.5%	28.8%	26.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:09+00:00	75.8%	58.8%	69.5%	28.8%	26.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	75.8%	58.8%	69.5%	28.8%	26.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	75.8%	58.8%	76.6%	28.8%	26.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	75.8%	58.8%	76.6%	28.8%	26.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	75.8%	58.8%	76.6%	28.8%	26.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	82.0%	58.8%	76.6%	28.8%	23.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	82.0%	58.8%	76.6%	28.8%	23.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	82.0%	58.8%	76.6%	28.8%	23.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	82.0%	58.8%	76.6%	28.8%	23.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00	82.0%	62.5%	78.0%	34.3%	23.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	82.0%	62.5%	78.0%	34.3%	23.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	82.0%	62.5%	78.0%	34.3%	23.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	82.0%	62.5%	78.0%	34.3%	23.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	82.1%	62.5%	78.0%	34.3%	23.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	74.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	73.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	71.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	68.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	67.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗