KCLT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

42%

32%

18%

11%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 29.2¢Risks 29.20u

EPSNO 70.8¢Risks 70.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +70.80u · EPS −70.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	11.7%	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	—	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	0.3%	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	0.3%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	0.5%	27.1%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	38.9%	46.5%	5.2%	—	28.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	31.0%	38.5%	17.9%	—	20.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	10.0%	35.8%	7.6%	—	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	25.3%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	13.6%	24.8%	7.2%	—	10.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	0.7%	25.6%	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	6.3%	25.1%	4.1%	—	6.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	4.5%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	5.9%	20.8%	3.1%	—	6.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	3.6%	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	2.2%	20.9%	1.5%	—	2.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	4.4%	21.0%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	3.2%	18.3%	3.0%	6.5%	3.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	19.0%	—	—	1.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	74.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	73.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	32%	71.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	69.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	71.6°F	2.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗