KCLT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

35%

32%

23%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 21.9¢Risks 21.95u

HRESNO 78.0¢Risks 78.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.05u · HRES −78.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	—	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	77.4%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	56.7%	1.2%	35.5%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	3.0%	36.9%	9.0%	—	16.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	14.0%	33.0%	12.0%	—	10.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	4.4%	32.3%	26.4%	—	11.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	5.3%	16.9%	5.7%	—	7.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.0%	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	3.1%	20.1%	8.7%	—	3.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	2.0%	20.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	6.5%	22.1%	11.8%	17.8%	5.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	24.2%	—	—	3.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	69.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	68.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	68.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	23%	65.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	61.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261024-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗