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KCLT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
35%
AIFS
35%
WN2
32%
ICON
23%
HRES
9%
Consensus
31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 21.9¢Risks 21.95u
VS
HRESNO 78.0¢Risks 78.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.05u · HRES −78.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-18T17:57:18+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.1% · 2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T17:57:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.0% · 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.2% · 2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.2% · 2026-10-18T17:57:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.2% · 2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.2% · 2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.2% · 2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.2% · 2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.2% · 2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.2% · 2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00IFS HRES: 7.3% · 2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00IFS HRES: 7.3% · 2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00IFS HRES: 7.3% · 2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00IFS HRES: 7.3% · 2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00IFS HRES: 7.3% · 2026-10-18T17:57:18+00:00IFS HRES: 7.3% · 2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-18T17:57:18+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:0010-18 14:5510-18 21:4310-19 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:0034.9%42.1%31.9%7.3%37.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:0034.9%35.0%31.9%7.3%37.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:0034.9%35.0%31.9%7.3%37.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:0034.9%35.0%28.2%7.3%37.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:18+00:0034.9%35.0%28.2%7.3%37.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:0034.9%35.0%28.2%7.3%37.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:0030.9%35.0%28.2%8.9%23.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:0030.9%35.0%28.2%8.9%23.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:0030.9%35.0%28.2%8.9%23.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:0030.9%35.0%28.2%8.9%23.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:0030.9%35.0%28.2%8.9%23.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:0030.9%35.0%31.9%8.9%23.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:0030.9%35.0%31.9%8.9%23.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:0030.9%35.0%31.9%8.9%23.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:0034.9%35.0%31.9%8.9%23.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:0034.9%35.0%31.9%8.9%23.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:0034.9%35.0%31.9%8.9%23.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:0034.9%35.0%31.9%8.9%23.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%71.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 14:00Pending
National Blend46%70.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble35%69.3°F3.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single35%68.4°F5.4°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 232%68.3°F4.7°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
ICON23%65.3°F7.2°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
IFS HRES9%61.6°F6.6°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261024-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗