KCLT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

64%

51%

16%

15%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.6¢Risks 44.65u

HRESNO 55.4¢Risks 55.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.35u · HRES −55.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	—	—	—	65.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	57.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	72.2%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.8%	29.4%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	2.0%	30.5%	6.5%	—	12.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	10.3%	26.6%	8.7%	—	7.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	2.9%	25.8%	20.5%	—	7.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	3.4%	12.3%	3.8%	—	5.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.0%	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	1.9%	14.8%	5.8%	—	2.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	1.1%	14.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	4.1%	16.1%	8.0%	12.7%	3.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	17.8%	—	—	1.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	75.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	73.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	71.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	61.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	64.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261024-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 72°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗