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KCLT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
74%
WN2
64%
EPS
51%
ICON
16%
HRES
15%
Consensus
48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 44.6¢Risks 44.65u
VS
HRESNO 55.4¢Risks 55.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.35u · HRES −55.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 74.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.6% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 15.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00IFS HRES: 15.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 15.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00IFS HRES: 15.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 15.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00ICON: 16.5% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00ICON: 16.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00ICON: 16.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00ICON: 16.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 16.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0010-17 07:4410-17 09:1610-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:0074.0%51.0%63.6%15.3%16.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:0074.0%51.0%63.6%15.3%16.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:0074.0%51.0%63.6%15.3%16.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0074.0%51.0%63.6%15.3%16.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0074.0%51.0%63.6%15.3%16.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single74%75.2°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 264%73.4°F5.5°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
National Blend55%72.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble51%71.6°F4.1°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
ICON16%61.8°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES15%64.9°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261024-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 72°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗