KCLT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

58%

55%

45%

16%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 38.8¢Risks 38.75u

EPSNO 61.3¢Risks 61.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +61.25u · EPS −61.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	29.7%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	48.1%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.7%	0.0%	29.4%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	30.5%	13.7%	1.1%	—	16.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	39.2%	33.7%	9.6%	19.9%	24.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	36.1%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	62%	76.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	75.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	75.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	73.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	71.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261026-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗