KCLT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

21%

19%

18%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 17.5¢Risks 17.45u

EPSNO 82.5¢Risks 82.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +82.55u · EPS −82.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	9.8%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	20.2%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	0.0%	8.2%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	8.2%	2.4%	0.1%	—	3.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	11.7%	9.0%	1.3%	3.9%	5.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	9.8%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	34%	76.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	75.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	19%	75.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	73.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	71.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗