KCLT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

21%

19%

18%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 17.5¢Risks 17.45u

EPSNO 82.5¢Risks 82.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +82.55u · EPS −82.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:32:47+00:00	27.7%	0.8%	20.6%	8.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	27.7%	0.8%	20.6%	8.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	27.7%	0.8%	20.6%	8.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	27.7%	0.8%	20.6%	8.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00	27.7%	0.8%	20.6%	8.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	27.7%	0.5%	17.4%	8.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	27.7%	0.5%	17.4%	8.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	27.7%	0.5%	17.4%	8.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	27.7%	0.5%	17.4%	8.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	27.7%	0.5%	17.3%	8.8%	0.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:21+00:00	27.7%	0.5%	17.3%	8.8%	0.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	27.7%	0.5%	17.3%	8.8%	0.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	27.7%	0.5%	17.3%	8.8%	0.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	27.7%	0.5%	25.2%	8.8%	0.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	27.7%	0.5%	25.2%	8.8%	0.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:50+00:00	27.7%	0.5%	25.2%	8.8%	0.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	25.4%	0.5%	25.2%	11.9%	37.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	25.4%	0.5%	25.2%	11.9%	37.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	25.4%	0.5%	25.2%	11.9%	37.1%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	25.4%	0.5%	25.2%	11.9%	37.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	25.4%	0.5%	25.2%	11.9%	37.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:25+00:00	25.4%	0.5%	21.1%	11.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	25.4%	0.5%	21.1%	11.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	25.4%	0.5%	21.1%	11.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	27.1%	0.5%	21.1%	11.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	27.1%	0.5%	21.1%	11.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	27.1%	0.5%	21.1%	11.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T04:04:11+00:00	27.1%	0.5%	21.1%	11.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	27.1%	0.5%	21.1%	11.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	27.1%	0.5%	20.0%	11.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	27.1%	0.5%	20.0%	11.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	27.1%	0.5%	20.0%	11.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	21.3%	0.5%	20.0%	11.9%	34.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	21.3%	0.5%	20.0%	11.9%	34.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	21.3%	0.5%	20.0%	11.9%	34.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	21.3%	0.5%	20.0%	11.9%	34.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	19.0%	18.5%	34.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	19.0%	18.5%	34.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	19.0%	18.5%	34.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	19.0%	18.5%	34.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	19.0%	18.5%	34.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	19.0%	18.5%	34.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	34%	76.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	75.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	19%	75.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	73.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	71.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗