WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KCLT / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
65%
AIFS
64%
HRES
45%
EPS
18%
ICON
6%
Consensus
38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 35.2¢Risks 35.20u
VS
ICONNO 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +64.80u · ICON −64.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 79.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 47.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 9.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0014.9%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.2%———3.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0059.0%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0079.2%———33.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0060.5%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0031.6%———25.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0021.2%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0076.8%———19.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0034.5%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0015.9%———23.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0017.5%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0016.5%———26.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0057.9%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0030.1%———24.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0029.2%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0031.6%———24.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0019.3%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0029.6%———30.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0019.2%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0033.0%———27.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0032.7%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0039.9%———23.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0035.3%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0031.4%—36.2%—23.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0041.1%—47.0%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0036.3%———23.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0036.7%—0.4%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0043.1%—24.4%—28.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0040.5%—24.0%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0042.2%—21.2%—25.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0038.9%—32.7%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0041.9%0.0%33.6%9.0%27.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0038.5%—40.4%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 265%78.4°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single64%78.6°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend55%77.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES45%75.7°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble18%73.7°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON6%60.8°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261027-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗