KCLT / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

41%

28%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 23.4¢Risks 23.45u

EPSNO 76.6¢Risks 76.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.55u · EPS −76.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	21.4%	—	12.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	30.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	12.2%	—	14.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	11.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	9.9%	—	12.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	17.2%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	0.0%	17.6%	3.2%	13.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	22.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	44%	78.6°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	78.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	28%	77.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	75.7°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	73.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	3%	60.8°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261027-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗