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KCLT / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
44%
WN2
41%
HRES
28%
EPS
3%
ICON
3%
Consensus
14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 23.4¢Risks 23.45u
VS
EPSNO 76.6¢Risks 76.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.55u · EPS −76.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 43.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00AIFS Single: 43.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 43.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 43.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00AIFS Single: 43.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00IFS HRES: 27.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00IFS HRES: 27.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 27.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 27.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 27.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS HRES: 27.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 13:1010-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:0043.8%3.1%41.5%27.8%3.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:0043.8%3.1%41.5%27.8%3.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0043.8%3.1%41.5%27.8%3.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0043.8%3.1%41.5%27.8%3.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:0043.8%3.1%41.4%27.8%3.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:0043.8%3.1%41.4%27.8%3.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single44%78.6°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 241%78.4°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend28%77.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES28%75.7°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble3%73.7°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON3%60.8°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261027-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗