KCMH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 58°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

51%

48%

48%

15%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 51.6¢Risks 51.65u

AIFSNO 48.4¢Risks 48.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +48.35u · AIFS −48.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	70.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	99.6%	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	89.4%	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	66.5%	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	48.0%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	99.7%	72.9%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	19.4%	50.7%	48.6%	—	57.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	14.0%	70.9%	—	40.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	16.9%	3.2%	56.8%	—	31.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	29.5%	5.1%	21.2%	—	35.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	25.6%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	70.7%	5.1%	37.7%	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	31.9%	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	37.9%	8.3%	14.6%	—	17.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	40.2%	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	34.7%	20.9%	17.8%	—	11.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	24.6%	24.6%	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	17.1%	27.9%	34.8%	—	13.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	37.2%	27.4%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	29.4%	24.3%	28.5%	—	15.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	15.0%	14.4%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	24.7%	13.7%	10.9%	3.1%	7.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	14.8%	12.9%	1.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	16.0%	16.8%	11.6%	—	7.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	13.9%	13.9%	12.6%	—	2.2%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	10.0%	11.8%	14.4%	2.0%	5.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	12.2%	9.8%	6.0%	—	6.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	10.7%	16.5%	10.7%	2.2%	5.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	7.6%	15.6%	8.1%	—	4.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	9.5%	21.2%	9.5%	1.6%	4.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	3.7%	16.2%	8.6%	—	3.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	3.1%	21.4%	4.1%	2.9%	3.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.8%	16.0%	4.5%	—	6.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	65.5°F	6.8°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.7744
National Blend	52%	58.0°F	8.5°F	2026-10-10 06:00	0.2735
IFS HRES	51%	57.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.2560
ICON	48%	57.1°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.2343
WeatherNext 2	48%	57.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.2266
AIFS Single	15%	51.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.0234

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 58°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261017-TMAX-GE58
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 58°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗