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KCMH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 58°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 02:59 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
88%
HRES
51%
ICON
48%
WN2
48%
AIFS
15%
Consensus
49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 51.6¢Risks 51.65u
VS
AIFSNO 48.4¢Risks 48.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +48.35u · AIFS −48.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-10-10T22:27:36+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-10-10T23:13:32+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-11T01:29:01+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-11T02:59:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-10T22:27:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-10T23:13:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-11T01:29:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-11T02:59:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.6% · 2026-10-10T22:27:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.6% · 2026-10-10T23:13:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.6% · 2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.6% · 2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.6% · 2026-10-11T01:29:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.6% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.6% · 2026-10-11T02:59:20+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-10T22:27:36+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-10T23:13:32+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T01:29:01+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T02:59:20+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-10T22:27:36+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-10T23:13:32+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-11T01:29:01+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-11T02:59:20+00:0010-10 22:2710-11 00:4310-11 02:59
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T02:59:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T22:27:36+00:0012.5%88.0%39.6%50.6%48.4%
2026-10-10T23:13:32+00:0012.5%88.0%47.6%50.6%48.4%
2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:0012.5%88.0%47.6%50.6%48.4%
2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:0012.5%88.0%47.6%50.6%48.4%
2026-10-11T01:29:01+00:0015.3%88.0%47.6%50.6%48.4%
2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:0015.3%88.0%47.6%50.6%48.4%
2026-10-11T02:59:20+00:0015.3%88.0%47.6%50.6%48.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble88%65.5°F6.8°F2026-10-10 00:000.7744
National Blend52%58.0°F8.5°F2026-10-10 06:000.2735
IFS HRES51%57.6°F6.3°F2026-10-10 12:000.2560
ICON48%57.1°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:000.2343
WeatherNext 248%57.2°F4.9°F2026-10-10 12:000.2266
AIFS Single15%51.8°F5.6°F2026-10-10 18:000.0234

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 58°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261017-TMAX-GE58
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 58°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗