KCMH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

44%

43%

13%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.5¢Risks 44.45u

AIFSNO 55.5¢Risks 55.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.55u · AIFS −55.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	99.4%	—	—	69.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	86.3%	—	—	68.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	60.6%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	41.6%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	99.5%	67.0%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	14.9%	43.7%	41.6%	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	10.3%	64.3%	—	33.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	12.5%	2.0%	49.2%	—	25.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	23.0%	3.3%	15.9%	—	28.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	19.5%	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	63.1%	3.3%	30.0%	—	21.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	24.6%	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	29.9%	5.4%	10.1%	—	12.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	31.8%	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	26.6%	14.9%	12.4%	—	7.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	17.7%	17.7%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	11.6%	20.3%	26.3%	—	8.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	28.2%	19.7%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	21.2%	17.0%	20.4%	—	9.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	9.6%	9.2%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	16.9%	8.5%	6.6%	1.6%	4.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	9.2%	7.9%	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	10.0%	10.5%	6.8%	—	4.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	8.2%	8.2%	7.4%	—	1.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	5.5%	6.7%	8.5%	0.9%	3.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	6.8%	5.3%	3.0%	—	3.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	5.7%	9.5%	5.7%	0.9%	2.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	3.7%	8.6%	4.0%	—	2.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	4.7%	12.2%	4.7%	0.6%	1.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.5%	8.6%	4.1%	—	1.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.2%	11.7%	1.6%	1.1%	1.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.8%	7.9%	1.7%	—	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	62.8°F	5.2°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.6336
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 02:00	0.2852
ICON	44%	57.1°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.1962
IFS HRES	43%	57.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1823
National Blend	35%	56.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.1253
WeatherNext 2	13%	53.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0172
AIFS Single	9%	51.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0086

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261017-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗