KCMH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

44%

43%

13%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.5¢Risks 44.45u

AIFSNO 55.5¢Risks 55.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.55u · AIFS −55.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T03:45:06+00:00	11.5%	84.8%	39.6%	44.4%	44.3%
2026-10-11T04:30:49+00:00	11.5%	84.8%	39.6%	44.4%	44.3%
2026-10-11T05:16:04+00:00	11.5%	84.8%	45.2%	44.4%	44.3%
2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00	11.5%	84.8%	45.2%	44.4%	44.3%
2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00	11.5%	84.8%	45.2%	44.4%	44.3%
2026-10-11T07:32:13+00:00	4.4%	84.8%	45.2%	42.8%	44.3%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	4.4%	84.8%	45.2%	42.8%	44.3%
2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00	4.4%	84.8%	45.2%	42.8%	44.3%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	4.4%	84.8%	45.2%	42.8%	44.3%
2026-10-11T10:33:56+00:00	4.4%	84.8%	45.2%	42.8%	44.3%
2026-10-11T11:19:56+00:00	4.4%	80.0%	13.0%	42.8%	44.3%
2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00	4.4%	80.0%	13.0%	42.8%	44.3%
2026-10-11T12:50:28+00:00	4.4%	80.0%	13.0%	42.8%	44.3%
2026-10-11T13:35:48+00:00	9.6%	80.0%	13.0%	42.8%	44.3%
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	9.3%	79.6%	13.1%	42.7%	44.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	62.8°F	5.2°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.6336
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 02:00	0.2852
ICON	44%	57.1°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.1962
IFS HRES	43%	57.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1823
National Blend	35%	56.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.1253
WeatherNext 2	13%	53.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0172
AIFS Single	9%	51.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0086

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261017-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗