KCMH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 58°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

92%

91%

76%

68%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 81.3¢Risks 81.30u

EPSNO 18.7¢Risks 18.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +18.70u · EPS −18.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	—	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	2.9%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	6.9%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	1.2%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	65.7%	23.0%	45.1%	—	68.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	77.4%	62.9%	63.6%	67.7%	—	73.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	78.9%	70.4%	78.9%	—	72.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	88.5%	81.6%	73.9%	—	71.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	5.8%	90.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.7%	88.0%	84.3%	78.1%	—	67.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	74.0%	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	86.4%	78.6%	68.6%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	87.0%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	75.6%	78.4%	75.6%	—	52.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	87.3%	77.6%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	87.4%	78.2%	74.5%	—	59.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.4%	86.0%	81.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	71.5%	88.2%	81.0%	80.3%	—	68.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	92.0%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	92.3%	62.9%	87.5%	—	59.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	89.8%	61.1%	0.3%	—	69.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	91.5%	70.0%	87.3%	—	74.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	91.3%	79.2%	88.6%	—	76.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	92.0%	85.6%	92.9%	61.1%	80.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	91.3%	80.9%	88.5%	—	80.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	90.5%	82.7%	88.7%	63.2%	78.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	95.3%	85.3%	88.2%	—	80.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	97.5%	90.5%	92.7%	84.6%	85.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	78.7%	97.1%	94.0%	92.5%	—	78.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	82.9%	97.1%	95.6%	83.9%	84.8%	80.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	99.6%	97.7%	95.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	66.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0025
WeatherNext 2	92%	64.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0062
IFS HRES	91%	66.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0081
ICON	76%	64.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0600
IFS Ensemble	68%	60.2°F	5.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1050
National Blend	52%	58.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2275

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 58°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261018-TMAX-GE58
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 58°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗