KCMH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 58°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

92%

91%

76%

68%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 81.3¢Risks 81.30u

EPSNO 18.7¢Risks 18.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +18.70u · EPS −18.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:19:56+00:00	29.5%	71.3%	67.2%	90.5%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00	29.5%	71.3%	67.2%	90.5%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:28+00:00	29.5%	71.3%	67.2%	90.5%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:48+00:00	69.9%	71.3%	67.2%	90.5%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	69.8%	71.3%	67.2%	90.5%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:46+00:00	69.8%	67.6%	67.2%	90.5%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	69.8%	67.6%	67.2%	90.5%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	69.8%	67.6%	67.2%	90.5%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	69.8%	67.6%	70.8%	90.5%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:12+00:00	69.8%	67.6%	70.8%	90.5%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	69.8%	67.6%	70.8%	90.5%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:32+00:00	91.9%	67.6%	70.8%	91.0%	75.5%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	91.9%	67.6%	70.8%	91.0%	75.5%
2026-10-11T21:13:53+00:00	91.9%	67.6%	70.8%	91.0%	75.5%
2026-10-11T21:59:00+00:00	91.9%	67.6%	70.8%	91.0%	75.5%
2026-10-11T22:44:15+00:00	91.9%	67.6%	70.8%	91.0%	75.5%
2026-10-11T23:29:35+00:00	91.9%	67.6%	92.1%	91.0%	75.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:45+00:00	91.9%	67.6%	92.1%	91.0%	75.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00	91.9%	67.6%	92.1%	91.0%	75.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00	95.0%	67.6%	92.1%	91.0%	75.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00	95.0%	67.6%	92.1%	91.0%	75.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00	95.0%	67.6%	92.1%	91.0%	75.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	66.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0025
WeatherNext 2	92%	64.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0062
IFS HRES	91%	66.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0081
ICON	76%	64.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0600
IFS Ensemble	68%	60.2°F	5.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1050
National Blend	52%	58.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2275

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 58°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261018-TMAX-GE58
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 58°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗