KCMH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

86%

86%

73%

63%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.4¢Risks 77.40u

ICONNO 22.6¢Risks 22.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.60u · ICON −22.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	1.4%	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	3.6%	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	52.1%	13.7%	31.7%	—	54.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	48.5%	49.3%	53.6%	—	60.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	66.3%	56.1%	66.3%	—	58.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	78.8%	69.2%	59.5%	—	56.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	2.4%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.0%	77.5%	72.1%	63.9%	—	51.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	58.5%	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.8%	74.5%	63.7%	51.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	75.0%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	59.1%	62.7%	59.1%	—	34.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	74.7%	61.2%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	74.5%	61.5%	56.8%	—	40.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	71.8%	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	74.9%	64.1%	63.1%	—	49.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	81.0%	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	81.0%	41.3%	72.7%	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	76.0%	38.9%	0.0%	—	47.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	78.5%	47.7%	71.0%	—	52.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	77.5%	58.4%	72.7%	—	54.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	78.3%	66.9%	80.1%	36.5%	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	76.2%	59.0%	70.9%	—	57.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	73.9%	60.6%	70.5%	36.8%	54.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	83.6%	63.7%	68.8%	—	56.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	69.5%	89.2%	72.0%	76.6%	61.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	87.2%	78.7%	75.2%	—	51.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	86.6%	81.9%	57.9%	59.4%	53.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	96.3%	87.7%	79.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	63.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0072
National Blend	91%	61.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0074
AIFS Single	86%	63.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0190
IFS Ensemble	86%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0207
IFS HRES	73%	61.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0718
ICON	63%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1347
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗