KCMH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

86%

86%

73%

63%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.4¢Risks 77.40u

ICONNO 22.6¢Risks 22.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.60u · ICON −22.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:15+00:00	84.8%	74.2%	85.0%	49.1%	80.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	84.8%	74.2%	85.0%	49.1%	80.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	84.8%	74.2%	89.4%	49.1%	80.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	84.8%	74.2%	89.4%	49.1%	80.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	84.8%	74.2%	89.4%	49.1%	80.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	84.8%	74.2%	89.4%	49.1%	80.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	79.3%	74.2%	89.4%	57.1%	79.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	79.3%	74.2%	89.4%	57.1%	79.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	79.3%	74.2%	89.4%	57.1%	79.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	79.3%	74.2%	89.4%	57.1%	79.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	79.3%	74.2%	87.6%	57.1%	79.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	79.3%	74.2%	87.6%	57.1%	79.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	79.3%	74.2%	87.6%	57.1%	79.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	76.6%	74.2%	87.6%	57.1%	79.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	76.6%	74.2%	87.6%	57.1%	79.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	76.6%	74.2%	87.6%	57.1%	79.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	76.6%	74.2%	87.6%	57.1%	79.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	82.5%	73.7%	84.1%	51.9%	79.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	82.5%	73.8%	84.1%	51.9%	79.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	82.5%	73.8%	84.1%	51.9%	79.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	82.5%	73.8%	89.0%	51.9%	79.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	82.5%	73.8%	89.0%	51.9%	79.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	82.5%	73.8%	89.0%	51.9%	79.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:03+00:00	81.2%	73.8%	89.0%	51.9%	75.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:33+00:00	81.2%	73.8%	89.0%	51.9%	75.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	81.2%	73.8%	89.0%	51.9%	75.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	81.2%	73.8%	89.0%	51.9%	75.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	81.2%	73.8%	89.0%	67.0%	75.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	81.2%	73.8%	87.7%	67.0%	75.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	81.2%	73.8%	87.7%	67.0%	75.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	81.2%	73.8%	87.7%	67.0%	75.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	82.5%	73.8%	87.7%	67.0%	75.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	82.5%	73.8%	87.7%	67.0%	75.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	82.5%	73.8%	87.7%	67.0%	75.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	82.5%	73.8%	87.7%	67.0%	75.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:53+00:00	82.5%	73.8%	87.7%	67.0%	75.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	82.5%	73.8%	90.7%	67.0%	75.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	82.5%	73.8%	90.7%	67.0%	75.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	82.5%	73.8%	90.7%	67.0%	75.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:34+00:00	86.7%	73.8%	90.7%	73.2%	63.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	86.7%	73.8%	90.7%	73.2%	63.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	86.7%	73.8%	90.7%	73.2%	63.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	86.7%	73.8%	90.7%	73.2%	63.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	86.7%	73.8%	90.7%	73.2%	63.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	86.7%	86.1%	91.5%	73.2%	63.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	86.7%	86.1%	91.5%	73.2%	63.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	86.7%	86.1%	91.5%	73.2%	63.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	86.2%	86.1%	91.5%	73.2%	63.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	86.2%	85.6%	91.5%	73.2%	63.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	63.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0072
National Blend	91%	61.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0074
AIFS Single	86%	63.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0190
IFS Ensemble	86%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0207
IFS HRES	73%	61.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0718
ICON	63%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1347
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗