KCMH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 67°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

62%

53%

49%

45%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.9¢Risks 58.90u

EPSNO 41.1¢Risks 41.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.10u · EPS −41.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	21.2%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	1.0%	56.1%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	25.7%	48.6%	9.9%	—	40.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	30.4%	39.2%	50.0%	—	38.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	27.0%	28.9%	35.1%	—	36.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	55.6%	43.6%	38.2%	—	24.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	0.1%	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	50.8%	54.2%	33.0%	—	17.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	45.7%	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	61.3%	46.5%	37.9%	—	23.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	57.1%	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	54.6%	50.9%	29.7%	—	28.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	67.4%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	59.6%	22.5%	31.3%	—	24.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	68.3%	24.9%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	65.1%	28.5%	35.9%	—	30.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	61.5%	31.6%	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.7%	60.8%	34.1%	30.1%	0.0%	30.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	56.7%	28.6%	0.0%	—	27.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	53.5%	33.1%	24.2%	18.3%	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	53.6%	30.4%	21.6%	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	61.1%	34.2%	29.8%	0.0%	25.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	57.7%	33.7%	26.9%	—	21.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	51.3%	35.6%	15.7%	28.4%	20.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	65.0%	35.0%	13.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	75.5%	41.4%	23.4%	58.6%	23.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	78.7%	44.0%	16.2%	—	10.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	76.2%	40.6%	10.2%	60.9%	14.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	83.0%	58.2%	35.5%	—	28.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	69.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0745
AIFS Single	62%	68.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.1452
National Blend	55%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2070
ICON	53%	67.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.2190
IFS HRES	49%	66.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.2560
IFS Ensemble	45%	65.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.3014

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261019-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗