KCMH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

62%

57%

31%

30%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 50.3¢Risks 50.35u

EPSNO 49.7¢Risks 49.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.65u · EPS −49.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	16.8%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	0.6%	49.3%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	20.4%	41.6%	7.2%	—	33.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	24.3%	32.3%	42.7%	—	31.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	21.1%	22.8%	28.3%	—	29.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	47.6%	35.9%	30.9%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	0.1%	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	42.5%	45.8%	25.8%	—	12.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	37.4%	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	52.6%	37.9%	29.9%	—	17.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	48.2%	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	45.4%	41.8%	22.3%	—	20.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	58.5%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	50.0%	15.9%	23.2%	—	17.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	58.9%	17.7%	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	55.1%	20.4%	26.8%	—	21.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	51.1%	22.8%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	50.0%	24.7%	21.3%	0.0%	21.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	45.5%	19.8%	0.0%	—	19.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	41.9%	23.3%	16.0%	11.6%	16.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	41.6%	20.8%	13.9%	—	16.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	48.8%	23.6%	19.9%	0.0%	16.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	44.9%	22.8%	17.4%	—	13.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	38.1%	24.0%	8.9%	18.2%	12.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	51.4%	23.2%	7.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.8%	62.8%	28.0%	13.8%	44.2%	13.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.6%	66.2%	29.8%	8.6%	—	5.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	62.4%	26.3%	4.8%	45.3%	7.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	70.5%	41.8%	21.6%	—	16.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	69.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0876
WeatherNext 2	62%	68.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1467
ICON	57%	68.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1849
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.2016
IFS HRES	31%	65.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4747
IFS Ensemble	30%	66.1°F	2.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4858
National Blend	23%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.5991

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗