KCMH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

62%

57%

31%

30%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 50.3¢Risks 50.35u

EPSNO 49.7¢Risks 49.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.65u · EPS −49.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:01+00:00	55.0%	37.2%	65.6%	43.1%	49.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	55.0%	37.2%	73.4%	43.1%	49.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	55.0%	37.2%	73.4%	43.1%	49.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	55.0%	37.2%	73.4%	43.1%	49.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	55.0%	37.2%	73.4%	43.1%	49.2%
2026-10-13T08:03:38+00:00	59.7%	37.2%	73.4%	46.4%	48.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	59.7%	37.2%	73.4%	46.4%	48.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	59.7%	37.2%	73.4%	46.4%	48.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	59.7%	37.2%	73.4%	46.4%	48.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:20+00:00	59.7%	25.5%	75.8%	46.4%	48.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	59.7%	25.5%	75.8%	46.4%	48.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	59.7%	25.5%	75.8%	46.4%	48.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	59.7%	25.5%	75.8%	46.4%	48.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	56.0%	25.5%	75.8%	46.4%	48.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	56.0%	25.5%	75.8%	46.4%	48.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:36+00:00	56.0%	25.4%	75.8%	46.4%	48.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	56.0%	25.4%	75.8%	46.4%	48.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	56.0%	25.4%	73.7%	46.4%	48.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	56.0%	25.4%	73.7%	46.4%	48.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	56.0%	25.4%	73.7%	46.4%	48.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	66.1%	25.4%	73.7%	46.4%	46.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	66.1%	25.4%	73.7%	46.4%	46.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	66.1%	25.4%	73.7%	46.4%	46.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	66.1%	25.4%	73.7%	46.4%	46.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	66.1%	25.4%	73.7%	43.3%	46.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	66.1%	25.4%	79.6%	43.3%	46.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	66.1%	25.4%	79.6%	43.3%	46.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	66.1%	25.4%	79.6%	43.3%	46.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	56.0%	25.4%	79.6%	43.3%	46.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	56.0%	25.4%	79.6%	43.3%	46.6%
2026-10-16T04:24:14+00:00	68.4%	29.3%	67.6%	39.7%	59.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	68.4%	29.3%	66.6%	39.7%	59.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	68.4%	29.3%	66.6%	39.7%	59.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	68.4%	29.3%	66.6%	39.7%	59.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	67.1%	29.3%	66.6%	39.7%	57.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	67.1%	29.3%	66.6%	39.7%	57.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	67.1%	29.3%	66.6%	39.7%	57.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	67.1%	29.3%	66.6%	39.7%	57.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	67.1%	29.3%	66.6%	39.7%	57.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	67.1%	30.2%	61.7%	39.7%	57.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	67.1%	30.2%	61.7%	39.7%	57.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	67.1%	30.2%	61.7%	39.7%	57.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:37+00:00	70.4%	30.2%	61.7%	31.1%	57.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	70.4%	30.3%	61.7%	31.1%	57.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	69.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0876
WeatherNext 2	62%	68.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1467
ICON	57%	68.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1849
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.2016
IFS HRES	31%	65.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4747
IFS Ensemble	30%	66.1°F	2.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4858
National Blend	23%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.5991

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗