KCMH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 13:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 5.1¢Risks 2.57u

EPSNO 94.8¢Risks 47.42u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.42u · EPS −47.42u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.8%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	6.2%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.8%	3.6%	0.1%	—	2.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.9%	1.7%	3.3%	—	1.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.6%	0.7%	1.1%	—	1.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	3.1%	1.5%	1.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.0%	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.9%	2.3%	0.6%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.2%	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	2.8%	1.1%	0.6%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.9%	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.4%	1.1%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.7%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.4%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.1%	0.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.4%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.9%	0.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.7%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	10%	70.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0104
ICON	9%	67.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0086
AIFS Single	7%	68.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0055
IFS HRES	7%	66.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0052
NWS forecast	7%	68.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0052
National Blend	1%	68.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 12 · 16:58 UTC

Original listing: Columbus runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗