KCMH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 13:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 5.1¢Risks 2.57u

EPSNO 94.8¢Risks 47.42u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.42u · EPS −47.42u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T16:58:04+00:00	4.9%	1.5%	8.9%	5.6%	2.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	4.9%	1.5%	8.9%	5.6%	2.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	4.9%	1.5%	8.9%	5.6%	2.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	4.9%	1.5%	8.9%	5.6%	2.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	3.6%	1.5%	8.9%	5.6%	17.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	3.6%	1.5%	8.9%	5.6%	17.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	3.6%	1.5%	8.9%	5.6%	17.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	3.6%	1.5%	8.9%	5.6%	17.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00	3.6%	1.5%	7.9%	5.6%	17.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	3.6%	1.5%	7.9%	5.6%	17.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	3.6%	1.5%	7.9%	5.6%	17.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	3.6%	1.5%	7.9%	5.6%	17.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00	7.0%	1.5%	7.9%	5.6%	17.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	7.0%	1.5%	7.9%	5.6%	17.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	7.0%	1.5%	7.9%	5.6%	17.7%
2026-10-13T04:16:03+00:00	7.0%	1.5%	7.9%	5.6%	17.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	7.0%	1.5%	11.8%	5.6%	17.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	7.0%	1.5%	11.8%	5.6%	17.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	7.0%	1.5%	11.8%	5.6%	17.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	7.0%	1.5%	11.8%	5.6%	17.7%
2026-10-13T08:03:38+00:00	7.4%	1.5%	11.8%	7.2%	9.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	7.4%	1.5%	11.8%	7.2%	9.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	7.4%	1.5%	11.8%	7.2%	9.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	7.4%	1.5%	11.8%	7.2%	9.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:20+00:00	7.4%	0.1%	10.2%	7.2%	9.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	7.4%	0.1%	10.2%	7.2%	9.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	7.4%	0.1%	10.2%	7.2%	9.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	7.4%	0.1%	10.2%	7.2%	9.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	10%	70.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0104
ICON	9%	67.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0086
AIFS Single	7%	68.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0055
IFS HRES	7%	66.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0052
NWS forecast	7%	68.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0052
National Blend	1%	68.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 12 · 16:58 UTC

Original listing: Columbus runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗