KCMH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

74%

65%

45%

29%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.8¢Risks 56.75u

EPSNO 43.2¢Risks 43.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.25u · EPS −43.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	33.5%	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	18.0%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	62.6%	1.8%	40.6%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	45.8%	4.7%	6.5%	—	32.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	53.6%	33.7%	12.4%	—	26.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	52.3%	35.1%	31.6%	—	17.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	59.5%	19.5%	18.4%	—	21.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	0.7%	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	43.4%	27.2%	14.8%	—	28.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	41.5%	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	58.7%	17.2%	20.2%	—	27.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	67.4%	24.9%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	63.6%	25.1%	27.4%	—	28.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	45.3%	19.6%	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	49.0%	27.1%	17.7%	—	23.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	34.4%	17.0%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	30.3%	17.6%	15.1%	0.0%	16.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	30.7%	19.8%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	35.1%	19.0%	16.2%	—	14.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	35.7%	16.8%	0.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	32.0%	19.1%	11.0%	0.0%	11.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	44.0%	16.7%	9.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	58.7%	19.9%	14.4%	26.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	53.9%	19.1%	14.3%	—	10.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	46.0%	20.0%	11.3%	25.1%	12.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	54.2%	24.2%	16.4%	—	13.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	60.1%	23.4%	20.2%	42.8%	16.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	24.8%	10.5%	—	6.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	74.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	73.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	65%	73.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	70.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	68.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	67.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261020-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 70°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗