KCMH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

74%

65%

45%

29%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.8¢Risks 56.75u

EPSNO 43.2¢Risks 43.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.25u · EPS −43.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:38+00:00	83.6%	42.3%	77.8%	48.7%	21.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	83.6%	42.3%	77.8%	48.7%	21.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	83.6%	42.3%	77.8%	48.7%	21.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	83.6%	42.3%	77.8%	48.7%	21.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:20+00:00	83.6%	28.2%	80.1%	48.7%	21.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	83.6%	28.2%	80.1%	48.7%	21.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	83.6%	28.2%	80.1%	48.7%	21.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	83.6%	28.2%	80.1%	48.7%	21.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	77.8%	28.2%	80.0%	48.7%	21.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	77.8%	29.3%	80.0%	48.7%	21.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:36+00:00	77.8%	29.3%	80.0%	48.7%	21.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	77.8%	29.3%	80.0%	48.7%	21.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	77.8%	29.3%	75.3%	48.7%	21.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	77.8%	29.3%	75.3%	48.7%	21.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	77.8%	29.3%	75.3%	48.7%	21.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	84.9%	29.3%	75.3%	48.7%	65.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	84.9%	29.3%	75.3%	48.7%	65.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	84.9%	29.3%	75.3%	48.7%	65.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	84.9%	29.3%	75.3%	48.7%	65.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	84.9%	29.3%	75.3%	45.0%	65.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	84.9%	29.3%	84.2%	45.0%	65.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	84.9%	29.3%	84.2%	45.0%	65.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	84.9%	29.3%	84.2%	45.0%	65.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	73.9%	29.3%	84.2%	45.0%	65.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	73.9%	29.3%	84.2%	45.0%	65.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	74.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	73.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	65%	73.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	70.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	68.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	67.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261020-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 70°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗