KCMH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

85%

46%

42%

29%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.2¢Risks 58.25u

HRESNO 41.8¢Risks 41.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.75u · HRES −41.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	55.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	14.8%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	—	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	23.4%	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	53.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	31.2%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	77.7%	19.4%	37.4%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	60.4%	40.9%	15.3%	—	25.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	65.0%	27.2%	22.6%	—	30.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	67.7%	29.6%	51.5%	—	38.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	65.5%	27.4%	35.9%	—	35.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	1.0%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	43.4%	21.9%	30.0%	—	36.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	6.4%	22.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	17.2%	26.9%	20.2%	—	26.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	25.7%	22.9%	—	—	22.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	19.0%	18.4%	10.6%	—	19.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	26.1%	15.9%	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	36.6%	21.8%	10.7%	—	15.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	25.7%	31.7%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	22.7%	25.1%	4.9%	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	30.7%	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	41.3%	38.2%	6.6%	—	13.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	41.0%	35.7%	0.0%	—	13.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	30.0%	38.5%	8.5%	0.0%	13.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	50.0%	40.5%	12.6%	—	15.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	61.1%	56.2%	41.3%	17.4%	42.6%	15.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	39.8%	14.3%	—	9.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	36.8%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	71.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	72.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	68.2°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	42%	67.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	66.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261021-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗