KCMH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

85%

46%

42%

29%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.2¢Risks 58.25u

HRESNO 41.8¢Risks 41.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.75u · HRES −41.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:20:53+00:00	91.7%	43.0%	92.9%	55.6%	47.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	91.7%	43.0%	92.9%	55.6%	47.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	91.7%	43.0%	92.9%	55.6%	47.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	85.3%	43.0%	92.9%	55.6%	47.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	85.3%	43.0%	92.7%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:22+00:00	85.3%	47.7%	92.7%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	85.3%	47.7%	92.7%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	85.3%	47.7%	92.7%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	85.3%	47.7%	87.7%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	85.3%	47.7%	87.7%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	85.3%	47.7%	87.7%	55.6%	48.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	77.8%	47.7%	87.7%	33.5%	73.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	77.8%	47.7%	87.7%	33.5%	73.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	77.8%	47.7%	87.7%	33.5%	73.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	77.8%	47.7%	87.7%	33.5%	73.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	77.8%	47.7%	87.7%	33.5%	73.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	77.8%	47.7%	84.1%	33.5%	73.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	77.8%	47.7%	84.1%	33.5%	73.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	77.8%	47.7%	84.1%	33.5%	73.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	85.3%	47.7%	84.1%	33.5%	73.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	85.3%	47.7%	84.1%	33.5%	73.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	85.3%	47.7%	84.1%	33.5%	73.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00	67.2%	36.0%	80.5%	28.0%	43.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	67.2%	31.0%	80.5%	28.0%	43.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	67.2%	31.0%	80.5%	28.0%	43.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	67.2%	31.0%	78.8%	28.0%	43.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00	67.2%	31.0%	78.8%	28.0%	43.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	67.2%	31.0%	78.8%	28.0%	43.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	69.7%	31.0%	78.8%	22.3%	29.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	69.7%	31.0%	78.8%	22.3%	29.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	69.7%	31.0%	78.8%	22.3%	29.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	69.7%	31.0%	78.8%	22.3%	29.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	69.7%	31.0%	78.8%	22.3%	29.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	69.7%	31.0%	76.2%	22.3%	29.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	69.7%	31.0%	76.2%	22.3%	29.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	69.7%	31.0%	76.2%	22.3%	29.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	70.5%	31.0%	76.2%	22.3%	29.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	70.5%	31.0%	76.2%	22.3%	29.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	70.5%	31.0%	76.2%	22.3%	29.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	70.5%	31.0%	76.2%	22.3%	29.1%
2026-10-20T04:04:44+00:00	80.7%	37.5%	80.8%	26.3%	27.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	80.7%	37.5%	80.8%	26.3%	27.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	80.7%	37.5%	89.0%	26.3%	27.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	80.7%	37.5%	89.0%	26.3%	27.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	80.7%	37.5%	89.0%	26.3%	27.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	85.2%	37.5%	89.0%	26.3%	42.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	85.2%	37.5%	89.0%	26.3%	42.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	85.2%	37.5%	89.0%	26.3%	42.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	85.2%	37.5%	89.0%	26.3%	42.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00	85.2%	46.4%	87.9%	28.6%	42.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	85.2%	46.4%	87.9%	28.6%	42.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	85.2%	46.4%	87.9%	28.6%	42.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	85.2%	46.4%	87.9%	28.6%	42.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:19+00:00	85.2%	46.4%	87.9%	28.6%	42.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	85.2%	46.4%	87.9%	28.6%	42.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	71.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	72.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	68.2°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	42%	67.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	66.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261021-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗