KCMH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

87%

49%

44%

43%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 65.8¢Risks 65.85u

EPSNO 34.2¢Risks 34.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.15u · EPS −34.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	11.7%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	18.9%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	25.7%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	15.1%	31.1%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	53.5%	34.3%	11.5%	—	20.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.3%	58.0%	21.5%	17.5%	—	24.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	60.6%	23.4%	43.9%	—	31.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	57.9%	21.2%	28.8%	—	28.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	0.6%	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	35.3%	16.2%	23.2%	—	28.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	4.1%	16.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	12.2%	20.2%	14.6%	—	20.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	19.0%	16.6%	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	13.4%	12.9%	7.0%	—	13.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	19.0%	10.8%	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.9%	27.9%	15.3%	6.8%	—	10.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	18.3%	23.4%	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	15.7%	17.6%	2.8%	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	22.0%	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	31.1%	28.2%	3.8%	—	8.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	30.5%	25.8%	0.0%	—	8.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	20.7%	28.0%	4.8%	0.0%	8.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	38.1%	29.3%	7.4%	—	9.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	43.8%	29.8%	10.6%	30.9%	9.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	28.0%	8.2%	—	5.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	89%	76.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	75.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	70.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	69.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	44%	67.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	68.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261021-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 70°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗