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KCMH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
89%
WN2
87%
HRES
49%
ICON
44%
EPS
43%
Consensus
65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 65.8¢Risks 65.85u
VS
EPSNO 34.2¢Risks 34.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.15u · EPS −34.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 88.7% · 2026-10-14T10:33:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.0% · 2026-10-14T10:33:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-14T10:33:32+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-14T10:33:32+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-14T10:33:32+00:0010-14 10:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

One recorded snapshot. Additional runs will extend this chart.

2026-10-14T10:33:32+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T10:33:32+00:0088.7%43.0%87.1%49.4%43.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single89%76.3°F5.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 287%75.6°F5.4°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
National Blend56%70.0°F3.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS HRES49%69.4°F6.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON44%67.9°F9.9°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble43%68.9°F3.4°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261021-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 70°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗