KCMH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

49%

25%

15%

14%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 37.4¢Risks 37.35u

EPSNO 62.7¢Risks 62.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +62.65u · EPS −62.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	9.0%	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	14.9%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	20.7%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	11.4%	25.4%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	46.5%	28.1%	8.5%	—	15.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	50.7%	16.5%	13.2%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	53.0%	17.9%	36.5%	—	25.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	50.0%	15.9%	22.4%	—	22.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	0.3%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	27.9%	11.6%	17.3%	—	21.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	2.5%	11.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	8.3%	14.6%	10.1%	—	14.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	13.5%	11.6%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	9.0%	8.6%	4.3%	—	9.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	13.2%	7.0%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	20.3%	10.2%	4.2%	—	6.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	12.4%	16.4%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	10.3%	11.8%	1.5%	—	4.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	15.0%	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	22.1%	19.8%	2.0%	—	4.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	21.4%	17.5%	0.0%	—	4.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	13.4%	19.1%	2.5%	0.0%	4.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	27.3%	19.9%	4.0%	—	5.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	32.0%	19.9%	5.9%	20.8%	5.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	18.2%	4.3%	—	2.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	60%	71.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	70.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	25%	67.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	65.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	67.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗