KCMH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

23%

20%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 17.2¢Risks 17.25u

EPSNO 82.8¢Risks 82.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +82.75u · EPS −82.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	1.9%	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	3.4%	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	14.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	5.1%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	2.0%	6.6%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	16.6%	7.2%	1.2%	—	3.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	18.4%	2.9%	2.1%	—	3.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	5.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	18.9%	3.0%	9.7%	—	5.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	15.9%	2.3%	3.9%	—	3.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.0%	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	5.1%	1.2%	2.3%	—	3.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	0.1%	1.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	0.7%	1.6%	0.9%	—	1.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	1.3%	1.0%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.6%	0.6%	0.2%	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	1.1%	0.4%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	2.0%	0.6%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.8%	1.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.5%	0.7%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.9%	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	1.6%	1.3%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	1.4%	0.9%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.5%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.7%	0.9%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	2.1%	0.8%	0.1%	0.9%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	0.4%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	34%	73.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	71.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	20%	70.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	16%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	68.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	68.8°F	2.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261021-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Columbus runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗