KCMH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

58%

29%

21%

19%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.0¢Risks 41.05u

EPSNO 59.0¢Risks 58.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.95u · EPS −58.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	—	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	5.4%	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	59.0%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.6%	1.3%	17.6%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	57.0%	24.1%	15.8%	—	26.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	23.7%	25.4%	22.6%	—	22.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	12.5%	18.9%	20.5%	—	25.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	13.1%	24.2%	16.9%	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	0.1%	15.8%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	6.9%	11.6%	8.7%	—	11.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	4.3%	12.8%	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	9.0%	10.1%	7.3%	—	9.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	14.5%	24.9%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	6.3%	11.9%	0.9%	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	13.7%	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	19.0%	12.1%	5.6%	—	8.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	13.5%	12.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	9.8%	18.3%	5.5%	—	6.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	16.9%	20.5%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	23.0%	19.8%	9.0%	22.1%	8.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	14.8%	0.0%	—	5.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	71.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	71.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	70.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	68.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	67.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	67.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗