KCMH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

64%

42%

23%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.8¢Risks 59.75u

HRESNO 40.2¢Risks 40.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.25u · HRES −40.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	0.9%	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	91.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	7.8%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	13.0%	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	5.9%	50.7%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	45.8%	82.5%	39.6%	—	57.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	37.8%	67.0%	47.1%	—	40.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	66.3%	22.8%	61.3%	29.6%	—	33.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	56.2%	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	44.4%	57.9%	15.4%	—	28.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	1.6%	44.3%	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	42.5%	65.5%	26.5%	—	20.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	30.3%	56.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	45.6%	58.7%	23.4%	—	14.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	36.8%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	29.7%	57.3%	28.2%	—	5.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	50.0%	57.5%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	35.7%	57.7%	30.4%	66.1%	15.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	56.0%	—	—	12.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	71.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	71.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	66.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	66.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	42%	64.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	62.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗