KCMH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

64%

42%

23%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.8¢Risks 59.75u

HRESNO 40.2¢Risks 40.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.25u · HRES −40.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:57+00:00	86.7%	58.5%	92.1%	24.5%	61.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	86.7%	58.5%	93.4%	24.5%	61.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	86.7%	58.5%	93.4%	24.5%	61.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	86.7%	58.5%	93.4%	24.5%	61.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:16+00:00	88.5%	58.5%	93.4%	20.6%	59.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	88.5%	58.5%	93.4%	20.6%	59.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	88.5%	58.5%	93.4%	20.6%	59.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	88.5%	58.5%	93.4%	20.6%	59.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00	88.5%	58.5%	93.4%	20.6%	59.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	88.5%	60.9%	96.6%	20.6%	59.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	88.5%	60.9%	96.6%	20.6%	59.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	88.5%	60.9%	96.6%	20.6%	59.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	81.4%	60.9%	96.6%	20.6%	59.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	81.5%	60.9%	96.6%	20.6%	59.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:00	81.5%	62.2%	96.6%	20.6%	59.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	81.5%	62.2%	96.6%	20.6%	59.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	81.5%	62.2%	96.6%	20.6%	59.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	81.5%	62.2%	92.7%	20.6%	59.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	81.5%	62.2%	92.7%	20.6%	59.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00	81.5%	62.2%	92.7%	20.6%	59.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	80.9%	62.2%	92.7%	10.7%	45.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	80.9%	62.2%	92.7%	10.7%	45.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	80.9%	62.2%	92.7%	10.7%	45.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	80.9%	62.2%	92.7%	10.7%	45.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	80.9%	62.2%	92.7%	10.7%	45.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	80.9%	63.5%	94.4%	10.7%	45.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	80.9%	63.5%	94.4%	10.7%	45.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	80.9%	63.5%	94.4%	10.7%	45.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	87.6%	63.5%	94.4%	10.7%	45.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	87.6%	63.5%	94.4%	10.7%	45.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	87.6%	63.5%	94.4%	10.7%	45.1%
2026-10-20T04:04:44+00:00	87.6%	63.5%	94.4%	10.7%	45.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	87.6%	63.5%	94.4%	10.7%	45.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	87.6%	63.5%	95.7%	10.7%	45.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	87.6%	63.5%	95.7%	10.7%	45.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	87.6%	63.5%	95.7%	10.7%	45.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	91.7%	63.5%	95.7%	10.7%	42.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	91.7%	63.5%	95.7%	10.7%	42.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	91.7%	63.5%	95.7%	10.7%	42.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	91.7%	63.5%	95.7%	10.7%	42.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00	91.7%	63.8%	96.5%	23.0%	42.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	91.7%	63.8%	96.5%	23.0%	42.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	91.7%	63.8%	96.5%	23.0%	42.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	91.7%	63.8%	96.5%	23.0%	42.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:19+00:00	91.7%	63.8%	96.5%	23.0%	42.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	71.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	71.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	66.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	66.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	42%	64.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	62.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗