KCMH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

76%

49%

31%

15%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.6¢Risks 48.60u

HRESNO 51.4¢Risks 51.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.40u · HRES −51.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	85.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	4.2%	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	7.3%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	86.1%	2.9%	37.4%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	32.3%	72.0%	26.9%	—	43.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	24.9%	52.9%	33.0%	—	27.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	44.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	12.9%	46.2%	17.9%	—	21.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	40.7%	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	29.5%	42.1%	7.8%	—	16.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	0.5%	29.0%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	27.2%	49.2%	14.8%	—	10.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	17.3%	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	29.1%	41.3%	12.2%	—	6.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	21.5%	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	16.0%	39.1%	14.9%	—	2.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	31.8%	38.8%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	19.7%	38.5%	15.9%	47.1%	6.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	36.3%	—	—	4.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	71.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	71.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	49%	67.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	66.1°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	61.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗