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KCMH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
82%
AIFS
76%
ICON
49%
EPS
31%
HRES
15%
Consensus
49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 48.6¢Risks 48.60u
VS
HRESNO 51.4¢Risks 51.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.40u · HRES −51.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.0% · 2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.3% · 2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.3% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.3% · 2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.2% · 2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.2% · 2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.2% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.2% · 2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.2% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.2% · 2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.2% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.2% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00IFS HRES: 15.0% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00ICON: 48.7% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:0010-18 14:5510-18 21:4310-19 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:0072.8%36.0%80.3%8.6%50.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:0072.8%30.9%80.3%8.6%50.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:0072.8%30.9%80.3%8.6%50.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:0072.8%30.9%78.2%8.6%50.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:0072.8%30.9%78.2%8.6%50.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:0072.8%30.9%78.2%8.6%50.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:0074.8%30.9%78.2%15.0%48.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:0074.8%30.9%78.2%15.0%48.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:0074.8%30.9%78.2%15.0%48.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:0074.8%30.9%78.2%15.0%48.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:0074.8%30.9%78.2%15.0%48.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:0074.8%30.9%82.2%15.0%48.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:0074.8%30.9%82.2%15.0%48.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:0074.8%30.9%82.2%15.0%48.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:0076.0%30.9%82.2%15.0%48.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:0076.0%30.9%82.2%15.0%48.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:0076.0%30.9%82.2%15.0%48.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:0076.0%30.9%82.2%15.0%48.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 282%71.3°F4.1°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
AIFS Single76%71.0°F5.0°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
NWS forecast54%68.0°F5.2°F2026-10-18 14:00Pending
ICON49%67.3°F6.1°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
National Blend44%67.0°F3.3°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble31%66.1°F2.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES15%61.5°F5.8°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗