KCMH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

66%

44%

24%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.5¢Risks 39.50u

HRESNO 60.5¢Risks 60.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.50u · HRES −60.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	—	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	81.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	2.9%	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	5.3%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	1.9%	31.1%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	26.3%	65.7%	21.4%	—	36.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	19.4%	45.6%	26.6%	—	21.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	9.3%	38.7%	13.4%	—	16.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	33.4%	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	23.0%	34.5%	5.3%	—	12.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	0.3%	22.4%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	20.7%	40.9%	10.4%	—	7.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	12.3%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	22.1%	33.0%	8.3%	—	4.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	15.5%	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	11.0%	30.6%	10.2%	—	1.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	23.8%	30.1%	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	13.6%	29.6%	10.7%	37.6%	4.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	27.4%	—	—	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	71.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	70.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	44%	67.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	66.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	59.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗