KCMH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

66%

44%

24%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.5¢Risks 39.50u

HRESNO 60.5¢Risks 60.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.50u · HRES −60.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:37+00:00	84.1%	51.1%	92.5%	42.6%	22.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	83.9%	51.1%	92.4%	42.6%	22.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	83.9%	50.0%	92.4%	42.6%	22.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	83.9%	50.0%	92.4%	42.6%	22.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	83.9%	50.0%	92.4%	42.6%	22.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:22+00:00	83.9%	50.0%	89.5%	42.6%	22.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	83.9%	50.0%	89.5%	42.6%	22.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	83.9%	50.0%	89.5%	42.6%	22.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:04+00:00	68.7%	50.0%	89.5%	42.6%	54.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:33+00:00	68.7%	50.0%	89.5%	42.6%	54.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	68.7%	50.0%	89.5%	42.6%	54.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	68.7%	50.0%	89.5%	42.6%	54.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	68.7%	50.0%	89.5%	39.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	68.7%	50.0%	84.6%	39.0%	54.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	68.7%	50.0%	84.6%	39.0%	54.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	68.7%	50.0%	84.6%	39.0%	54.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	69.3%	50.0%	84.6%	39.0%	54.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	69.3%	50.0%	84.6%	39.0%	54.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	69.3%	50.0%	84.6%	39.0%	54.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	69.3%	50.0%	84.6%	39.0%	54.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	68.5%	37.0%	72.5%	22.9%	32.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	68.5%	37.0%	73.9%	22.9%	32.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	68.5%	37.0%	73.9%	22.9%	32.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	68.5%	37.0%	73.9%	22.9%	32.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	68.5%	37.0%	73.9%	22.9%	32.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	71.4%	37.0%	73.9%	6.2%	43.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	71.4%	37.0%	73.9%	6.2%	43.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	71.4%	37.0%	73.9%	6.2%	43.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	71.4%	37.0%	73.9%	6.2%	43.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00	71.4%	23.8%	72.8%	6.2%	43.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	71.4%	23.8%	72.8%	6.2%	43.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	71.4%	23.8%	72.8%	6.2%	43.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	71.4%	23.8%	72.8%	6.2%	43.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	65.7%	23.8%	72.8%	6.2%	43.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	71.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	70.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	44%	67.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	66.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	59.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗