KCMH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

20%

10%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.1¢Risks 5.03u

HRESNO 90.0¢Risks 44.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.98u · HRES −44.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	0.3%	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	0.1%	4.7%	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	3.1%	20.4%	2.1%	—	5.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	1.6%	8.2%	2.8%	—	1.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.4%	5.2%	0.7%	—	1.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	3.6%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	1.6%	3.6%	0.1%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.0%	1.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	1.1%	4.5%	0.3%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.4%	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	1.1%	2.4%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.5%	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.9%	1.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.2%	1.2%	0.2%	2.1%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	20%	71.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	71.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	10%	67.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	67.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	59.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261023-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Columbus runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗