KCMH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

20%

10%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.1¢Risks 5.03u

HRESNO 90.0¢Risks 44.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.98u · HRES −44.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:38+00:00	41.0%	2.8%	52.4%	10.1%	7.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	41.1%	2.8%	52.3%	10.2%	7.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	41.1%	2.9%	52.3%	10.2%	7.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	41.1%	2.9%	52.3%	10.2%	7.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	41.1%	2.9%	52.3%	10.2%	7.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:22+00:00	41.1%	2.9%	45.3%	10.2%	7.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	41.1%	2.9%	45.3%	10.2%	7.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	41.1%	2.9%	45.3%	10.2%	7.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:04+00:00	23.3%	2.9%	45.3%	10.2%	27.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:33+00:00	23.3%	2.9%	45.3%	10.2%	27.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	23.3%	2.9%	45.3%	10.2%	27.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	23.3%	2.9%	45.3%	10.2%	27.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	23.3%	2.9%	45.3%	8.6%	27.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	23.3%	2.9%	36.2%	8.7%	27.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	23.3%	2.9%	36.2%	8.7%	27.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	23.3%	2.9%	36.2%	8.7%	27.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	23.8%	2.9%	36.2%	8.7%	27.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	23.8%	2.9%	36.2%	8.7%	27.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	23.8%	2.9%	36.2%	8.7%	27.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	23.8%	2.9%	36.2%	8.7%	27.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:54+00:00	23.8%	2.9%	36.2%	8.7%	27.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	23.8%	2.9%	32.6%	8.7%	27.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	23.8%	2.9%	32.6%	8.7%	27.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	23.8%	2.9%	32.6%	8.7%	27.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:34+00:00	29.0%	2.9%	32.6%	6.5%	13.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	29.0%	2.9%	32.6%	6.5%	13.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	29.0%	2.9%	32.6%	6.5%	13.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	29.0%	2.9%	32.6%	6.5%	13.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	29.0%	2.9%	32.6%	6.5%	13.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	29.0%	0.7%	24.0%	6.5%	13.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	29.0%	0.7%	24.0%	6.5%	13.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	29.0%	0.7%	24.0%	6.5%	13.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	25.3%	0.7%	24.0%	6.7%	13.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	25.3%	0.8%	24.0%	6.5%	13.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00	25.3%	0.7%	24.0%	6.5%	13.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	25.3%	0.7%	24.0%	6.5%	13.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	25.3%	0.7%	22.1%	6.5%	13.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	25.3%	0.7%	22.1%	6.5%	13.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	25.3%	0.7%	22.1%	6.5%	13.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	25.3%	0.7%	22.1%	6.5%	13.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	22.1%	3.6%	7.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	22.1%	3.6%	7.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	22.1%	3.6%	7.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	22.1%	3.6%	7.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	18.5%	3.6%	7.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	18.5%	3.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	18.5%	3.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	18.5%	3.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	20.8%	0.7%	18.5%	3.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	20.8%	0.7%	18.5%	3.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	20.8%	0.7%	18.5%	3.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	20.8%	0.7%	18.5%	3.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	20.8%	0.7%	19.6%	3.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	20.8%	0.7%	19.6%	3.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	20.8%	0.7%	19.6%	3.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	20.8%	0.7%	19.6%	3.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	19.6%	0.3%	9.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	19.6%	0.3%	9.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	19.6%	0.3%	9.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	19.8%	0.7%	19.6%	0.3%	9.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	20%	71.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	71.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	10%	67.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	67.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	59.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261023-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Columbus runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗