KCMH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

69%

61%

25%

14%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.1¢Risks 53.15u

HRESNO 46.9¢Risks 46.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.85u · HRES −46.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	32.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	63.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	35.4%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.0%	1.3%	43.3%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	9.0%	51.4%	7.7%	—	20.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	50.7%	55.8%	21.5%	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	41.7%	58.3%	35.1%	—	20.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	52.4%	47.6%	27.4%	—	13.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	0.0%	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	41.7%	49.2%	31.5%	—	6.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	39.8%	56.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	46.5%	57.8%	33.0%	49.1%	15.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	51.8%	—	—	10.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	73.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	70.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	61%	69.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	64.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	61.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗