KCMH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

69%

61%

25%

14%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.1¢Risks 53.15u

HRESNO 46.9¢Risks 46.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.85u · HRES −46.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:53+00:00	67.8%	25.2%	75.3%	19.0%	70.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	67.8%	21.9%	75.3%	19.0%	70.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	67.8%	21.9%	75.3%	19.0%	70.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	67.8%	21.9%	74.0%	19.0%	70.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00	67.8%	21.9%	74.0%	19.0%	70.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	67.8%	21.9%	74.0%	19.0%	70.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	70.4%	21.9%	74.0%	37.5%	64.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	70.4%	21.9%	74.0%	37.5%	64.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	70.4%	21.9%	74.0%	37.5%	64.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	70.4%	21.9%	74.0%	37.5%	64.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	70.4%	21.9%	74.0%	37.5%	64.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	70.4%	21.9%	81.0%	37.5%	64.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	70.4%	21.9%	81.0%	37.5%	64.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	70.4%	21.9%	81.0%	37.5%	64.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	74.1%	21.9%	81.0%	37.5%	64.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	74.1%	21.9%	81.0%	37.5%	64.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	74.1%	21.9%	81.0%	37.5%	64.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	74.1%	21.9%	81.0%	37.5%	64.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:00	58.8%	25.0%	93.4%	22.3%	68.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	58.8%	25.0%	93.4%	22.3%	68.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	58.8%	25.0%	93.4%	22.3%	68.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	58.8%	25.0%	90.6%	22.3%	68.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	58.8%	25.0%	90.6%	22.3%	68.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00	58.8%	25.0%	90.6%	22.3%	68.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	61.2%	25.0%	90.6%	14.2%	61.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	61.2%	25.0%	90.6%	14.2%	61.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	61.2%	25.0%	90.6%	14.2%	61.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	61.2%	25.0%	90.6%	14.2%	61.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	61.2%	25.0%	90.6%	14.2%	61.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	61.2%	25.0%	92.1%	14.2%	61.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	61.2%	25.0%	92.1%	14.2%	61.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	61.2%	25.0%	92.1%	14.2%	61.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	69.4%	25.0%	92.1%	14.2%	61.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	69.4%	25.0%	92.1%	14.2%	61.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	69.4%	25.0%	92.1%	14.2%	61.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	73.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	70.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	61%	69.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	64.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	61.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗