KCMH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

65%

61%

18%

15%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.6¢Risks 41.60u

HRESNO 58.4¢Risks 58.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.40u · HRES −58.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	29.5%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	0.8%	36.7%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	6.5%	44.4%	5.4%	—	16.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.0%	43.4%	48.5%	16.5%	—	14.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	34.4%	50.8%	28.3%	—	15.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	44.4%	39.7%	21.2%	—	9.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	0.0%	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	33.8%	40.9%	24.5%	—	4.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	31.9%	48.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	37.9%	49.1%	25.5%	40.5%	10.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	42.9%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	34.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	68%	70.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	71.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	70.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	64.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	61.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261024-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗