KCMH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

65%

61%

18%

15%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.6¢Risks 41.60u

HRESNO 58.4¢Risks 58.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.40u · HRES −58.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:34+00:00	68.7%	48.2%	86.8%	29.4%	17.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	68.7%	48.2%	86.8%	29.4%	17.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	68.7%	48.2%	86.8%	29.4%	17.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	68.7%	48.2%	86.8%	29.4%	17.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	68.7%	48.2%	86.8%	29.4%	17.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	68.7%	31.3%	84.6%	29.4%	17.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	68.7%	31.3%	84.6%	29.4%	17.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	68.7%	31.3%	84.6%	29.4%	17.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	64.3%	31.3%	84.6%	29.4%	17.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	64.3%	31.3%	84.6%	29.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00	64.3%	30.9%	84.6%	29.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	64.3%	30.9%	84.6%	29.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	64.3%	30.9%	74.1%	29.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	64.3%	30.9%	74.1%	29.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	64.3%	30.9%	74.1%	29.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	64.3%	30.9%	74.1%	29.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	59.6%	30.9%	74.1%	33.8%	34.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	59.6%	30.9%	74.1%	33.8%	34.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	59.6%	30.9%	74.1%	33.8%	34.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	59.6%	30.9%	74.1%	33.8%	34.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	59.6%	30.9%	65.9%	33.8%	34.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	59.6%	30.9%	65.9%	33.8%	34.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	59.6%	30.9%	65.9%	33.8%	34.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	59.6%	30.9%	65.9%	33.8%	34.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	62.3%	30.9%	65.9%	33.8%	34.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	62.3%	30.9%	65.9%	33.8%	34.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	62.3%	30.9%	65.9%	33.8%	34.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	62.3%	30.9%	65.9%	33.8%	34.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	62.3%	30.9%	68.8%	33.8%	34.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	62.3%	30.9%	68.8%	33.8%	34.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	62.3%	30.9%	68.8%	33.8%	34.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	62.3%	30.9%	68.8%	33.8%	34.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	66.5%	30.9%	68.8%	15.1%	65.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	66.5%	30.9%	68.8%	15.1%	65.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	66.5%	30.9%	68.8%	15.1%	65.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	66.5%	30.9%	68.8%	15.1%	65.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00	66.5%	17.7%	68.1%	15.1%	65.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	66.5%	17.7%	68.1%	15.1%	65.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	66.5%	17.7%	68.1%	15.1%	65.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	66.5%	17.7%	68.1%	15.1%	65.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	60.9%	18.0%	68.1%	15.1%	65.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	68%	70.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	71.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	70.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	64.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	61.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261024-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗