KCMH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

28%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 18.1¢Risks 18.10u

EPSNO 81.9¢Risks 81.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +81.90u · EPS −81.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:35+00:00	28.9%	7.9%	50.7%	7.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	28.9%	7.9%	50.7%	7.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	28.9%	7.9%	50.7%	7.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	28.9%	7.9%	50.7%	7.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	28.9%	7.9%	50.7%	7.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	28.9%	2.6%	43.8%	7.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	28.9%	2.6%	43.8%	7.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	28.9%	2.6%	43.8%	7.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	24.9%	2.6%	43.8%	7.1%	6.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	24.9%	2.6%	43.8%	7.0%	6.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00	24.9%	2.3%	43.8%	7.0%	6.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	24.9%	2.3%	43.8%	7.0%	6.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	24.9%	2.3%	29.9%	7.0%	6.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	24.9%	2.3%	29.9%	7.0%	6.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	24.9%	2.3%	29.9%	7.0%	6.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	24.9%	2.3%	29.9%	7.0%	6.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	21.2%	2.3%	29.9%	8.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	21.2%	2.3%	29.9%	8.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	21.2%	2.3%	29.9%	8.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	21.2%	2.3%	29.9%	8.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	21.2%	2.3%	22.3%	8.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	21.2%	2.3%	22.3%	8.9%	16.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	21.2%	2.3%	22.3%	8.9%	16.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	21.2%	2.3%	22.3%	8.9%	16.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	23.3%	2.3%	22.3%	8.9%	16.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	23.3%	2.3%	22.3%	8.9%	16.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	23.3%	2.3%	22.3%	8.9%	16.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	23.3%	2.3%	22.3%	8.9%	16.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	23.3%	2.3%	24.7%	8.9%	16.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	23.3%	2.3%	24.7%	8.9%	16.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	23.3%	2.3%	24.7%	8.9%	16.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	23.3%	2.3%	24.7%	8.9%	16.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	24.7%	2.3%	24.7%	2.6%	32.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	24.7%	2.3%	24.7%	2.6%	32.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	24.7%	2.3%	24.7%	2.6%	32.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	24.7%	2.3%	24.7%	2.6%	32.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00	24.7%	0.8%	20.8%	2.6%	32.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	24.7%	0.8%	20.8%	2.6%	32.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	24.7%	0.8%	20.8%	2.6%	32.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	24.7%	0.8%	20.8%	2.6%	32.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	20.3%	0.8%	20.8%	2.6%	32.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:54+00:00	20.3%	0.8%	20.8%	2.6%	32.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	20.3%	0.6%	20.8%	2.6%	32.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	20.3%	0.6%	20.8%	2.6%	32.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	20.3%	0.6%	19.6%	2.6%	32.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00	20.3%	0.6%	19.6%	2.6%	32.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	20.3%	0.6%	19.6%	2.6%	32.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	22.4%	0.6%	19.6%	8.4%	26.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	22.4%	0.6%	19.6%	8.4%	26.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	22.4%	0.6%	19.6%	8.4%	26.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	22.4%	0.6%	19.6%	8.4%	26.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	22.4%	0.6%	19.6%	8.4%	26.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	22.4%	0.6%	26.7%	8.4%	26.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	22.4%	0.6%	26.7%	8.4%	26.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	22.4%	0.6%	26.7%	8.4%	26.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	25.9%	0.6%	26.7%	8.4%	26.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	25.9%	0.6%	26.7%	8.4%	26.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	25.9%	0.6%	26.7%	8.4%	26.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	25.9%	0.6%	26.7%	8.4%	26.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:58+00:00	25.9%	0.6%	26.7%	8.4%	26.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:00	25.9%	0.6%	34.2%	8.4%	26.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	25.9%	0.6%	34.2%	8.4%	26.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	25.9%	0.6%	34.2%	8.4%	26.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:16+00:00	28.6%	0.6%	34.2%	2.4%	25.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	28.6%	0.6%	34.2%	2.4%	25.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	28.6%	0.6%	34.2%	2.4%	25.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	28.6%	0.6%	34.2%	2.4%	25.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00	28.6%	0.6%	34.2%	2.4%	25.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	28.6%	1.4%	42.3%	2.4%	25.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	28.6%	1.4%	42.3%	2.4%	25.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	28.6%	1.4%	42.3%	2.4%	25.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	11.7%	1.4%	42.3%	2.4%	25.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	11.6%	1.4%	42.3%	2.4%	25.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:00	11.6%	1.4%	42.3%	2.4%	25.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	11.6%	1.4%	42.3%	2.4%	25.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	11.6%	1.4%	42.3%	2.4%	25.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	11.6%	1.4%	34.9%	2.4%	25.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	11.6%	1.4%	34.9%	2.4%	25.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00	11.6%	1.4%	34.9%	2.4%	25.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	12.8%	1.4%	34.9%	1.1%	19.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	12.8%	1.4%	34.9%	1.1%	19.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	12.8%	1.4%	34.9%	1.1%	19.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	12.8%	1.4%	34.9%	1.1%	19.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	12.8%	1.4%	34.9%	1.1%	19.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	12.8%	1.4%	38.5%	1.1%	19.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	12.8%	1.4%	38.5%	1.1%	19.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	12.8%	1.4%	38.5%	1.1%	19.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	18.1%	1.4%	38.5%	1.1%	19.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	18.1%	1.4%	38.5%	1.1%	19.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	18.1%	1.4%	38.5%	1.1%	19.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:44+00:00	18.1%	1.4%	38.5%	1.1%	19.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	18.1%	1.4%	38.5%	1.1%	19.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	18.1%	1.4%	35.8%	1.1%	19.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	18.1%	1.4%	35.8%	1.1%	19.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	18.1%	1.4%	35.8%	1.1%	19.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	27.8%	1.4%	35.8%	1.1%	12.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	27.8%	1.4%	35.8%	1.1%	12.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	27.8%	1.4%	35.8%	1.1%	12.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	27.8%	1.4%	35.8%	1.1%	12.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00	27.8%	0.9%	35.3%	3.6%	12.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	27.8%	0.9%	35.3%	3.6%	12.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	27.8%	0.9%	35.3%	3.6%	12.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	27.8%	0.9%	35.3%	3.6%	12.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	35%	73.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	71.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	68.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	65.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Columbus runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗