KCMH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

28%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 18.1¢Risks 18.10u

EPSNO 81.9¢Risks 81.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +81.90u · EPS −81.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	6.5%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	0.0%	8.8%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	0.5%	11.5%	0.4%	—	2.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	10.3%	12.8%	1.9%	—	1.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	6.0%	12.9%	4.2%	—	1.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	9.0%	7.2%	2.3%	—	0.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.0%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	4.7%	6.9%	2.6%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	3.9%	9.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	5.2%	9.0%	2.4%	5.9%	0.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	6.3%	—	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	35%	73.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	71.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	68.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	65.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Columbus runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗