KCMH / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

40%

38%

10%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 30.3¢Risks 30.30u

EPSNO 69.7¢Risks 69.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +69.70u · EPS −69.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	7.4%	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	29.5%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	24.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	0.1%	18.4%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	9.3%	11.9%	2.6%	—	4.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	12.0%	7.1%	1.1%	—	2.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	9.0%	18.9%	2.3%	—	1.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	18.4%	24.8%	4.3%	7.2%	4.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	17.3%	—	—	4.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	73.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	72.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	67.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	67.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Columbus runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗