KCMH / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

40%

38%

10%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 30.3¢Risks 30.30u

EPSNO 69.7¢Risks 69.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +69.70u · EPS −69.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:24+00:00	28.3%	3.3%	35.1%	5.7%	8.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	28.3%	3.3%	35.1%	5.7%	8.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	28.3%	3.3%	35.1%	5.7%	8.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	28.3%	3.3%	35.1%	5.7%	8.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00	28.3%	1.4%	31.9%	5.7%	8.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	28.3%	1.4%	31.9%	5.7%	8.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	28.3%	1.4%	31.9%	5.7%	8.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	28.3%	1.4%	31.9%	5.7%	8.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	33.8%	1.4%	31.9%	5.7%	8.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:54+00:00	33.8%	1.4%	31.9%	5.7%	8.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	33.8%	1.1%	31.9%	5.7%	8.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	33.8%	1.1%	31.9%	5.7%	8.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	33.8%	1.1%	34.1%	5.7%	8.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00	33.8%	1.1%	34.1%	5.7%	8.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	33.8%	1.1%	34.1%	5.7%	8.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	30.1%	1.1%	34.1%	5.3%	38.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	30.1%	1.1%	34.1%	5.3%	38.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	30.1%	1.1%	34.1%	5.3%	38.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	30.1%	1.1%	34.1%	5.3%	38.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	30.1%	1.1%	34.1%	5.3%	38.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	30.1%	1.1%	41.5%	5.3%	38.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	30.1%	1.1%	41.5%	5.3%	38.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	30.1%	1.1%	41.5%	5.3%	38.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	30.1%	1.1%	41.5%	5.3%	38.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	30.1%	1.1%	41.5%	5.3%	38.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	30.1%	1.1%	41.5%	5.3%	38.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	30.1%	1.1%	41.5%	5.3%	38.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:58+00:00	30.1%	1.1%	41.5%	5.3%	38.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:00	30.1%	1.1%	47.7%	5.3%	38.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	30.1%	1.1%	47.7%	5.3%	38.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	30.1%	1.1%	47.7%	5.3%	38.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:16+00:00	34.9%	1.1%	47.7%	8.4%	35.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	34.9%	1.1%	47.7%	8.4%	35.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	34.9%	1.1%	47.7%	8.4%	35.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	34.9%	1.1%	47.7%	8.4%	35.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00	34.9%	1.1%	47.7%	8.4%	35.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	34.9%	0.8%	56.0%	8.4%	35.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	34.9%	0.8%	56.0%	8.4%	35.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	34.9%	0.8%	56.0%	8.4%	35.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	22.4%	0.8%	56.0%	8.4%	35.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	22.4%	0.8%	56.0%	8.4%	34.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:00	22.4%	0.9%	56.0%	8.4%	34.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	22.4%	0.9%	56.0%	8.4%	34.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	22.4%	0.9%	56.0%	8.4%	34.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	22.4%	0.9%	61.8%	8.4%	34.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	22.4%	0.9%	61.8%	8.4%	34.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00	22.4%	0.9%	61.8%	8.4%	34.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	24.1%	0.9%	61.8%	8.8%	31.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	24.1%	0.9%	61.8%	8.8%	31.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	24.1%	0.9%	61.8%	8.8%	31.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	24.1%	0.9%	61.8%	8.8%	31.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	24.1%	0.9%	61.8%	8.8%	31.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	24.1%	0.9%	65.0%	8.8%	31.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	24.1%	0.9%	65.0%	8.8%	31.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	24.1%	0.9%	65.0%	8.8%	31.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	29.6%	0.9%	65.0%	8.8%	31.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	29.6%	0.9%	65.0%	8.8%	31.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	29.6%	0.9%	65.0%	8.8%	31.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:44+00:00	29.6%	0.9%	65.0%	8.8%	31.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	29.6%	0.9%	65.0%	8.8%	31.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	29.6%	0.9%	56.8%	8.8%	31.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	29.6%	0.9%	56.8%	8.8%	31.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	29.6%	0.9%	56.8%	8.8%	31.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	39.6%	0.9%	56.8%	8.8%	38.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	39.6%	0.9%	56.8%	8.8%	38.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	39.6%	0.9%	56.8%	8.8%	38.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	39.6%	0.9%	56.8%	8.8%	38.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00	39.6%	2.9%	57.7%	10.3%	38.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	39.6%	2.9%	57.7%	10.3%	38.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	39.6%	2.9%	57.7%	10.3%	38.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	39.6%	2.9%	57.7%	10.3%	38.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:19+00:00	39.6%	2.9%	57.7%	10.3%	38.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	39.6%	2.9%	57.7%	10.3%	38.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	73.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	72.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	67.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	67.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Columbus runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗